Birth of the Conservative Movement
The nomination of Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer for the Republican Party in the 1964 Presidential Election marked the beginning of the Conservative Movement in America. For the first time, conservatives rallied around a candidate with a fervor not seen before nor since, for that matter, at least not until the modern Tea Party movement took shape in the wake of the failed Obama presidency. Forty-eight years ago, Republicans chose Goldwater over other outstanding candidates, like Nelson Rockefeller, William Scranton and George Romney, all governors of key states who might have had broader appeal, but were not as conservative. Going against all odds with Goldwater in a political climate that favored liberals, the Republicans ultimately went down to a crushing defeat, winning only 6 states and 38.5% of the vote. Many believe that it was worth the effort back in 1964 just to have an opportunity to flex the political muscles and demonstrate the burgeoning might of conservatives, laying the groundwork for the future victories of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. The question now comes down to whether we can afford risking another such defeat in the 2012 Presidential Election, an election that many believe will be ‘do or die’ for the American Way.
Gingrich Surge Changes Everything
We love Newt Gingrich and would be very happy to have him as our president. Gingrich would be an outstanding leader and we will work hard to elect him if he is the nominee. But does he have broad enough appeal to garner the votes needed to beat Barack Obama? Are Americans just looking for an intelligent, skilled debater in their president? Isn’t that what we have now. While these are tremendously important attributes, Gingrich’s strong conservative views along with his well documented past history, some of which may be over the baggage allowance, could be a turn off for many voters who might otherwise support a Republican candidate. On the other hand, those conservative creds were apparently just what the people in South Carolina were looking for. One thing’s for sure…in this rapidly changing primary campaign, more fluid than any we have seen in recent history, Gingrich has now made it a competitive race.
Romney’s 25% Ceiling of Support
Just a week ago it looked like Mitt Romney had things all sewn up for the Republican Nomination. But then his ‘win’ in the Iowa Caucuses was unceremoniously snatched away from him followed shortly thereafter by his distant second finish in the South Carolina primary. His future is anything but certain now. Most would agree that Romney is experienced, articulate, and conservative enough to satisfy most Tea Party Patriots in the general election. He also has the looks, charisma and presidential demeanor that many voters seem to want. Finally, we believe the perception that he is ‘center-right’ would appeal to many independent voters and their support will be critical if the Republicans are to retake the White House. All that notwithstanding, Mitt Romney simply has not been able to break through that 25% ceiling of steady support that he has maintained over the last six years.
But 2012 is Not 1964
The big difference between now and 48 years ago is a little thing called ‘fair and balanced news’. Back then there were only three major television networks and they were all in the tank for the Democrats. The ‘beloved’ Walter Cronkite, anchor of the CBS Evening News, for example, was a close personal friend of the Kennedys and a known left wing liberal. Jumping back to 2012, the cable news networks now offer an attractive alternative and are actually more popular than the ‘mainstream media’ news broadcasts, which many believe have lost their relevancy. An additional change in the political climate that favors conservatives this time around is reflected in a 2009 Gallup Poll which showed that nearly twice as many Americans identified themselves as conservative (40%) as opposed to liberal (21%), with a significant 35% identifying as moderate. It goes without saying that the zeal with which many of those conservatives are approaching the 2012 Presidential Elections cannot be underestimated. Think Tea Party Patriots! Republicans will now have to decide whether to go for broke with Newt and galvanize the conservatives or play it safe with Mitt and attract those moderates. Couldn’t we just have both of them!